Monday, October 22, 2007

Mary Meeker on Technology/Internet: Key Points

marymeeker.jpg Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker gave an excellent overview of the state of tech and Internet sector at Web 2.0.  This high-level perspective is Mary's forte, and she's really good at it.  Full presentation  here.  Some interesting points below:

A People-Driven Medium:
  • Consumer IP traffic should surpass enterprise for first time in 2008
  • IP traffic should double every two years through 2011 (high def video)
Huge potential for Mobile, but...
  • 10% of 3.2 billion global mobile subs now on 3G or better.
  • 91% of mobile users keep handset within 1 meter reach 24/7
  • Control freak incumbent carriers still getting in the way....
US now only small portion of vast global market
  • 70% of PCs outside US
  • 86% of Internet users outside US
  • Emerging market users growing 30%+, US 3%
  • Non-US mobile users: 92% of global market
  • China Internet market capitalization now $50 billion, up from $5 5 years ago
Macro Enterprise Spending May Be Turning Up
  • Web 2.0 technology to drive next big corporate purchasing cycle
  • Corporate technology spending shows signs of accelerating
  • Productivity gains may be on upswing again.
Recession Could Have Major Impact
  • Don't underestimate importance of sub-prime problems.
  • Average GDP growth forecasts already cut to 2% from 3% over just 4 months
  • Only good news: US share of global GDP has declined to 19%
Online Advertising/Commerce
  • Ads: 26% growth Y/Y., still only 10% of total
  • Commerce: 19% growth y/y, still only 4% of total
  • Online music: +107% y/y, 11% of total (global)
  • 208 million global users, up 185% year over year
  • 21 billion minutes, up 335%
  • 220 million users, up 94%
  • About 7% of wireless users, 5% of wireline.
Update on Future Morgan Stanley Banking Clients
  • Compelling pitches for many of them, including Facebook, Joost, Demand Media, and Slide.
Technology Investing Still Winner-Take-All
  • 2% of public companies create 100% of the wealth.